Center for Modeling, Planning & Policy Analysis

Our Modeling, Planning & Policy Analysis (MPPA) staff are pioneers in the field of demographic and disease projection modeling and have produced many of the models trusted and used by HIV/AIDS, TB, reproductive, maternal and child health, and NCD program and policy experts around the world. These tools support countries to understand disease burden, and potential courses of action and associated resource requirements, to improve the health of their populations. By modeling cost, demographic and health outcome changes associated with policies under consideration, and translating the results into data and graphics that support strategic planning, our models help stakeholders prioritize and make decisions about how to best use limited resources to advance health goals.

While the modeling and analytics are complex, we specialize in user-friendly interfaces, making the models accessible for a variety of audiences. Our models are well documented, with manuals, training materials, and default databases available online for easy reference. We put special emphasis on capacity building through frequent regional and country training workshops, technical assistance and support for modeling positions within national organizations.

The MPPA team takes a uniquely collaborative approach to model development and routinely works with expert groups such as the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Models and Projections, the UN Interagency Working Group on Costing, the Tuberculosis Modeling Consortium, and others, sharing knowledge to advance the field. The model development process includes country applications to field-test the models and generate feedback from intended users. This process results in models that are informed by a variety of experts and establishes a rigorous vetting process.

Key areas of expertise include:

  • Development of models for evidence-based advocacy, policy and planning
    • Projection models such as AIM and the STI model estimate the burden of diseases such as HIV, non-communicable diseases, and other conditions.
    • Advocacy models, such as RAPID and AIDS Impact Model (AIM), use an array of scientific and programmatic data to help policy makers understand the consequences of current health trends and potential solutions.
    • Planning models, such as the Integrated Health Tool/OneHealth Tool, Goals and the Resource Needs Model, use available data to estimate the resources and effort required to achieve national goals.
  • Model applications including multi-country scenario analysis for donor and multi-lateral decison making, country support for national strategic plan development and costing, and investment case development for prioritization.
  • Facilitation of dialogue and learning around data for decision making. Avenir Health works as a conduit to create opportunities for all stakeholders, (e.g., researchers, analysts, policy makers and community and grass roots leaders) to come together to discuss what the data show, and how they affect key policy questions.

Partnerships for Impact

The Center for Modeling, Planning & Policy Analysis collaborates with a diverse range of partners, including:

  • Country Governments: Departments of planning, FP, RMNCAH, HIV, TB, and NCDs, among others
  • Multilateral Organizations: UNFPA, UNAIDS, WHO, CDC, UNICEF
  • Donors: USAID, CIFF, Gates Foundation, Global Fund, GFF
  • Regional and Global Initiatives: Reproductive Health Supplies Coalition, Stop TB Partnership
  • Corporations: GSK, Merck, J and J

Signature Models

The Center for Modeling, Planning & Policy Analysis collaborates with a diverse range of partners, including: